Spring is not too far away, and with spring in Lincoln County comes the chance of flooding.

That is not necessarily a guarantee, according to the Lincoln County Emergency Management Agency’s Spring Flood Outlook. However, LCEMA Director Jim Sharp is positive about the outcome.

“If I had to sum up the constituent parts of this year’s Spring Flood Outlook, I would do so by saying that, keeping in mind that it is the Spring Flood Outlook and not the Spring Flood Guarantee, an increased risk (over and above the historical seasonal risk) of major flooding is not anticipated,” Sharp said. “Again, that’s not a guarantee, and it may change as weather conditions change – but it is certainly good news.”

At Troy, the Cuivre River shows the probability of reaching or exceeding Minor Flood Stage exists as early as the week of Feb. 22, then diminishes somewhat through March and much of April, reaching the 10% to 25% probability again during the week of April 19.

Compared with historical records, there is roughly a 10% greater probability of reaching or exceeding Minor Flood Stage this spring.

In Old Monroe, the Cuivre River shows the probability of reaching or exceeding Minor Flood Stage exists as early as the week of March 8, and continues through the week of May 3, with the probability of reaching or exceeding Moderate Flood Stage existing as early as the week of April 12 and continuing with a brief diminishment through the week of May 3.

Historical data and current models are fairly consistent.

The Mississippi River at Winfield shows at least a 10% to 25% probability of reaching or exceeding Minor Flood Stage as early as the week of March 8, and continuing throughout the week of May 3, and at least a 10% to 25% probability of reaching or exceeding Moderate Flood Stage as early as the week of March 29 and continuing throughout the week of May 3.

Compared to historical records, there is roughly a 12% to 15% greater chance of reaching or exceeding Minor Flood Stage.

The Mississippi River at Clarksville is overall showing at least a 10% to a 25% probability of reaching or exceeding Minor Flood Stage as early as the week of March 1, and continuing throughout the week of May, a 10% to 25% probability of reaching or exceeding Moderate Flood Stage as early as the week of March and continuing throughout the week of May 3.

Compared to historical records, there is roughly a 12% to 15% greater probability of reaching or exceeding Minor Flood Stage this spring.